Ron Paul will win the Republican nomination because:
Huckabee will take Iowa because of the christianist vote then hit a brick wall in NH, Nevada, Michigan and South Carolina. He is back down to middle of the pack after that.
Guiliani will not get off of the ground in the early states and will be buried in the south.
Romeny beaten by Huckabee in Iowa, flip-flops his momentum in the following primaries.
McCain's only chance is New Hampshire and he will not get it done. He does not rise a third time.
Thompson never left the ground and is just digging deeper.
That means that Paul will:
Place in the top 3 in Iowa.
1st in N.H- open primary and libertarian hotbed
1st in Nevada- open primary and libertarian hotbed
Top 2 in Michigan - open primary with antiwar Demo’s coming over after self-disqualification.
Top 3 in South Carolina.
Ron Paul after the first round will have more top 3 finishes than anyone else and will not have to look back. The intial primary states except for Iowa are made to order for a Goldwater Republican who's time has come.
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3 comments:
I agree that Ron Paul will do well in New Hampshire. I like your reasoning.
Ron Paul, like Ayn Rands books, started slow and is building up steam through word of mouth. I am sure he will be a "best seller".
Good to see a path laid out for Ron Paul to the nomination--I had yet to see one. I figured having Nevada have an earlier primary this year was a blessing in disguise. I'm here on a naval base and the other officers and I are crossing our fingers for the Dr.--he is the only candidate who loves the Constitution and respects our oath to defend it.
Awesome write up. Thank you. Ron Paul is the best candidate for President hands down or up for that matter. He is for our troops, and he wants them home just as much as America does.
Ron Paul has my vote and support from Sunny California.
Tess
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